The Oracle-Sun Deal
The news broke late yesterday that Oracle pulled a fast one on IBM by acquiring Sun Microsystems in a $7.38 billion deal. Larry Ellison, Oracle’s CEO, says Sun’s Java programming is “the single most important software asset we have ever acquired.” He may be right, and this deal may go down as Ellison’s master stroke.
On the other hand, it could be a big flop. Java accounts for a small percentage of Sun’s revenue, the bulk of which comes from hardware in which Oracle has precious little experience. Oh, and Sun’s hardware business is currently unprofitable.
Let’s not forget that companies like Sun, Oracle and IBM are run by larger-than-life CEOs who are continually trying to out-maneuver one another for competitive advantage (and bragging rights). It’s possible that Oracle’s interest in Sun was piqued by IBMs overtures, and only then did they find a way to justify doing the deal. Very few decisions in business are completely rational–especially decisions of this magnitude and urgency, around which the adrenaline can’t help but flow.
I’m no computer industry analyst, so I will leave the professional prognosticators to analyze how a purchase that will take a big bite out of Oracle’s margins may be overcome by giving them a leg up in software development. What I will say is this: when companies of this size and importance merge (particularly in industries as competitive as hardware and software) in an economy this unstable, issues surrounding consensus, focus and consistency are sure to arise. As I detail in When Growth Stalls, these are the unexpected internal dynamics that often take companies down.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a year or two from now we were reflecting on the acquisition that should have worked, but didn’t. It’s all too common when growth stalls.


