Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Sun: Sell! IBM: Don’t Buy!

Sun Microsystems’ board is meeting today to discuss the failed acquisition talks with IBM. I have one word of advice: Sell.

Why? Well, the most obvious reason is that this could be Microsoft-Yahoo all over again. IBM knows it’s in the catbird seat and that Sun doesn’t have a lot of options. More important, however, is what seems to be happening inside of Sun when you read between the lines of the news reports. The company appears to be suffering from at least two of the destructive internal dynamics I spell out in When Growth Stalls.

Lack of Consensus. CEO Jonathan Schwartz and Chairman Scott McNealy are reported to have taken opposing sides in evaluating the wisdom of a deal. That’s not a minor disagreement, and it reveals deeper issues about how each views the company and its challenges. All is not well in Sun Microland.

Loss of Focus. Sun has always been a hardware company. Schwartz has of late tried to shift the company’s focus towards software. At this point it appears to be caught in between while having to endure a very unforgiving economic environment.

When a company loses its focus and has issues in the boardroom–and then becomes a runaway bride–you have to wonder if what’s going on inside is worse than it appears. Especially when the company issues a statement that it’s “committed to its leadership team, growth strategy and building value for its shareholders.” Methinks they doth protest too much.

That said, if I was to counsel IBM, my advice would be to walk away and not turn back. As When Growth Stalls makes clear, acquisitions are usually a bad idea, especially if there’s dissent within the walls of the target company.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall at Sun’s board meeting today. If I was, I’d do everything I could to create a buzz in favor of selling. The company doesn’t have a lot of good options, but in my mind that’s the best one for shareholders.

1 Comment

  1. Sun really made only 1 big mistake. It never changed its commitment to its initial success formula – so when the market shifted Sun had no idea what to do. Without developing the ability to shift with markets, any company can pull a “Sun” and fail. Read more at http://www.ThePhoenixPrinciple.com

    Comment by adam hartung — Thursday, April 9, 2009 @ 4:44 PM

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